Monthly HODL Net Position Change


Description

  • Liveliness: the ratio of the sum of Bitcoin Days Destroyed and the sum of all Bitcoin Days Ever Created.
  • Hodler Net Position Change

Liveliness is a measure of investor behavior, in which the higher the amount of meaningful transactions a blockchain accommodates, the higher its Liveliness. It is the inverse of lost or HODLed Bitcoins, and alerts us of moves of large or old stashes. It increases as long term holders liquidate positions and decreases while they accumulate to HODL. It would temporarily reach 1 if all coins would move within a single block and remain at 0 for a blockchain that have not yet had a transaction other than issuance. Liveliness will trend down for a blockchain with dormant units and up for a vivid ecosystem.

To get “Lost or HODLed Bitcoins”, take Liveliness, subtract 1, and multiply by supply. Liveliness increases (and HODL decreases) during time periods of Bitcoin price increases and investors accumulate to HODL during periods of range bound prices.

HODLer Net Position Change, on the other hand, is a measure of position change for HODLers. During bull markets, HODLer Net Position Change drops as larger positions are cashed out and new positions are accumulated. The metric increases as HODLers accumulate positions, often in bear markets.

Where Liveliness is a measure of investor activity, HOLDer Net Position Change is a measure of whale activity.


Use Case

Trader

Traders can use these metrics by staying ahead of whale activity which can dramatically shift token prices.

Analyst

Analysts can uses these metrics to identify the stage of the market.

Researcher

Researchers can use these metrics to find patterns of whale activity to token prices, and to find measures of network activity (liveliness) to adoption rates.


Methodology

Coin Days Created (CDC) = Cumulative Sum of (Issuance * Reward Days Created)

Liveliness = SUM(Coin Days Destroyed) / SUM(CDC)

HODLed Coins = (1 - Liveliness) * Supply

HODLer Net Position Change = Daily or monthly change in HODLed Coins